How the Global Travel Buyer Index Q4 2025 Signals Stabilisation in Tourism Purchasing

The Global Travel Buyer Index (GTBI) Q4 2025 reveals a modest but clear stabilisation in tourism purchasing, with growing optimism for the months ahead.

What the GTBI Measures and Why It Matters

The Global Travel Buyer Index (GTBI), published quarterly by Dr. Fried & Partner in cooperation with ITB Berlin, is an early indicator of travel market momentum. Based on a survey of international buyers from the ITB Buyers Circle, the GTBI tracks both the current purchasing situation and short-term expectations, giving tour operators, destinations, and service providers a useful snapshot of demand trends.

At a glance: key trends in Q4 2025

December’s survey shows a gentle uptick in current activity alongside notably stronger expectations for the next six months, suggesting confidence is returning to procurement decisions within the industry.

Headline figures

Current purchasing trends

Over the previous six months, buyers reported a modest rise in activity: 54% saw increased purchasing volume year-on-year, 32% reported no change, and 14% experienced a decline. Fixed purchases also edged up, with 51% noting increases. Contractual expenditure remains robust: 62% indicated growth, while only 5% reported reductions.

Expectations for the coming months

Optimism is stronger when respondents look forward. Some 59% expect their purchasing volume to increase in the next six months, and 54% foresee a higher share of fixed purchases. Contractual expenditure expectations are similarly positive, with 63% predicting an increase and 33% anticipating stability. Together these responses lift the Future Expectation Index to 90 points.

Who is buying and what they are buying

The December sample concentrates procurement on core tourism services, which has direct implications for suppliers aiming to capture demand.

• Primary procurement areas: hotels, DMC services, activities & events, and transfers.
• Key source markets: Europe, Germany, and Asia.
• Decision-makers: international buyers within the ITB Buyers Circle representing tour operators, travel agencies, and destination management teams.

Implications for tourism providers

For hoteliers, DMCs, and excursion operators, the GTBI’s positive tilt suggests a good moment to review contract offers, product packaging, and fixed-rate availability. Increased contractual expenditure and a higher proportion of fixed purchases point to demand for reliable, bookable services that can be marketed to trade partners and large buyers.

Practical actions to have a mind to do

• Prepare flexible but concrete contract options for tour operators.
• Highlight secure group capacity and clear cancellation terms.
• Package activities and transfers with clear pricing to appeal to buyers seeking fixed purchases.

Why this stabilisation matters for travellers and tourism marketing

Stable purchasing and positive expectations among buyers often translate into more consistent availability of tours, better-negotiated packages, and clearer pricing for end customers. For travellers this can mean more reliable booking windows, improved group experiences, and a wider range of curated cultural programs and excursions to choose from.

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Highlights and final observations

The GTBI Q4 2025 indicates a tourism procurement landscape that is slowly stabilising: the Current Situation Index improved to 85, future sentiment strengthened to 90, and the overall GTBI rose to 87. While statistics are helpful, nothing replaces first-hand travel experiences; direct engagement with local providers and guided activities reveals nuances that numbers can’t capture.

In summary, the most important takeaways are: a cautious but clear recovery in purchasing volumes, rising confidence about the near-term outlook, and sustained interest in hotels, DMC services, activities & events, and transfers. These trends suggest better prospects for adventure activities, museum tours with live guides, cruise packages, and eco-friendly wildlife safaris, as well as opportunities for luxury adventure travel experiences and exclusive yacht charters. Whether you’re researching online virtual tours or planning an in-person safari tour, these market signals point toward a travel season with growing options and improved reliability. Travel experiences built on verified providers and clear procurement signals will foster memorable and well-organised trips.